Volatility and the Allegory of the Prisoner's Dilemma

Volatility and the Allegory of the Prisoner's Dilemma

Cost
Free
Published
10/2015
Full Name
Volatility and the Allegory of the Prisoner's Dilemma: False Peace, Moral Hazard, and Shadow Convexity

At the pinnacle of a multi-generational debt cycle unparalleled in the history of finance, the Prisoner’s Dilemma is the most important archetype for understanding shadow risk in modern financial markets. Volatility and the Allegory of the Prisoner's Dilemma is a masterwork tapestry depicting a great tower of civilization that rests upon a bedrock of human cooperation and competition across history. We are nearing the end of a thirty-year “monetary super-cycle” that created a “debt super-cycle”, a giant tower of babel in the capitalist system. As markets now fully price the expectation of central bank control, we are now only one voltage switch away from the razor's edge of risk. Do not fool yourself, peace is not the absence of conflict; peace can exist on the very edge of volatility.